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Record W3055892768 · doi:10.1080/16000870.2020.1803663

Climate persistence and memory

2020· article· en· W3055892768 on OpenAlexaff
Jiangnan Li, Zhian Sun

Bibliographic record

VenueTellus A Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicComplex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Victoria
Fundersnot available
KeywordsAutocorrelationPersistence (discontinuity)ExponentGeopotential heightClimatologyScalingMathematicsConfidence intervalPrecipitationStatistical physicsAtmospheric sciencesEnvironmental scienceStatisticsPhysicsMeteorologyGeology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The autocorrelation function (ACF) and its relationship to fluctuation analysis (FA) are discussed, based on the reanalysis monthly mean geopotential height at 500 hPa from ECMWF (ERA-20C). ACF provides a measure of the influence of correlation at different time points. The principal pattern ACF shows relatively large positive correlations between every consecutive years in the central Asian continent and the North African continent. However, the confidence intervals of the ACF distributions are generally too wide, and so of low confidence level. It is found that the scaling rule of the ACF breaks down typically, while the distributions of the critical exponent of FA always show patterns. It is also found that the larger values of critical exponent appear in the tropical region, which reflects a larger climate persistence. The critical exponent becomes smaller in the jet stream regions, indicating less year to year reappearance. The characteristic time accounts for the weighted summation of all possible ACFs, which represents a memory length of a certain climate events. In the boreal winter, some robust patterns can be identified by the corresponding distribution of the characteristic time, which provides a unified way of describing the persistence of climate. An approximate relation between the critical exponent of FA and the characteristic time has been found, and such relation is verified by the distributions of these two physical variables.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.427
Threshold uncertainty score0.735

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.024
GPT teacher head0.191
Teacher spread0.167 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2020
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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