Investment rules and time invariance under population growth
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We propose an adaptation of Hartwick’s investment rule to models with population growth and show that following Hartwick’s rule is equivalent to a time-invariant real per capita net national product. In the so-called DHSS model of capital accumulation and resource depletion the proposed Hartwick’s rule equates the accumulation of per capita capital, net of the capital dilution effect of population growth, to the value of the depletion of the resource, gross of the capital dilution effect. We investigate why this asymmetry arises by analyzing a general model with multiple capital goods, in which we obtain a formulation of Hartwick’s investment rule where capital gains play a role if population growth is positive. Since capital gains accrue only to the resource but not to capital, we get the apparent asymmetry in the DHSS model. In both models we obtain as a corollary that keeping the value of net investments equal to zero leads to constant consumption if population is constant.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it