Relationship Between Bulgarian Sovereign Credit Risk and Accounting Information
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We examine the linkages between accounting information and credit default swap spread in Bulgaria. This paper employs a panel data approach including OLS model and VAR model. We use sovereign credit default swap spread data for the period reaching from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2016. We apply 3 month Euribor rate as an indicator for risk- free rate. The final sample consists of twenty separate corporate entities from various industries in Bulgaria. The results reveal that accounting information is a relevant source of information to the credit markets. So we may conclude that accounting information is proved to provide incremental influence to the probability of default in Bulgaria. Moreover, CDS spreads has a significant relationship with other accounting and market variables.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it