Constraining the distance to the North Polar Spur with Gaia DR2
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT The North Polar Spur (NPS) is one of the largest structures observed in the Milky Way in both the radio and soft X-rays. While several predictions have been made regarding the origin of the NPS, modelling the structure is difficult without precise distance constraints. In this paper, we determine accurate distances to the southern terminus of the NPS and towards latitudes ranging up to 55°. First, we fit for the distance and extinction to stars towards the NPS using optical and near-infrared photometry and Gaia Data Release 2 astrometry. We model these per-star distance–extinction estimates as being caused by dust screens at unknown distances, which we fit for using a nested sampling algorithm. We then compare the extinction to the Spur derived from our 3D dust modelling with integrated independent measures from XMM–Newton X-ray absorption and H i column density measures. We find that we can account for nearly 100 per cent of the total column density of the NPS as lying within 140 pc for latitudes >26° and within 700 pc for latitudes <11°. Based on the results, we conclude that the NPS is not associated with the Galactic Centre or the Fermi bubbles. Instead, it is likely associated, especially at higher latitudes, with the Scorpius–Centaurus association.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".