Developing and validating a primary care EMR-based frailty definition using machine learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Individuals who have been identified as frail have an increased state of vulnerability, often leading to adverse health events, increased health spending, and potentially detrimental outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this work is to develop and validate a case definition for frailty that can be used in a primary care electronic medical record database. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional validation study using data from the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network (CPCSSN) in Southern Alberta. 52 CPCSSN sentinels assessed a random sample of their own patients using the Rockwood Clinical Frailty scale, resulting in a total of 875 patients to be used as reference standard. Patients must be over the age of 65 and have had a clinic visit within the last 24 months. The case definition for frailty was developed using machine learning methods using CPCSSN records for the 875 patients. RESULTS: Of the 875 patients, 155 (17.7%) were frail and 720 (84.2%) were not frail. Validation metrics of the case definition were: sensitivity and specificity of 0.28, 95% CI (0.21 to 0.36) and 0.94, 95% CI (0.93 to 0.96), respectively; PPV and NPV of 0.53, 95% CI (0.42 to 0.64) and 0.86, 95% CI (0.83 to 0.88), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The low sensitivity and specificity results could be because frailty as a construct remains under-developed and relatively poorly understood due to its complex nature. These results contribute to the literature by demonstrating that case definitions for frailty require expert consensus and potentially more sophisticated algorithms to be successful.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.023 | 0.062 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".