Online probabilistic model class selection and joint estimation of structures for post-disaster monitoring
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Online selection of the appropriate model and identifying its parameters based on measured vibrational data are among the challenging issues in dynamic system identification. After a severe earthquake, quick monitoring and assessment of structural health status play a crucial role in effective critical risk management for the building owners and decision-makers. The Bayesian multiple modeling approach is a suitable tool for optimal model class selection, which is used in this article mainly for improving data fitting precision, decreasing dimensions of structural unknown vector through removing unnecessary parameters, detecting the occurrence and type of predominant phenomenon related to degradation and pinching, and finally increasing stability and convergence rate of the used identification algorithm. In this study, a reliable and effective time-domain method is proposed for online probabilistic model class selection and joint estimation of structures using the central difference Kalman filter and Bayesian multiple modeling approach. Also, in contrast to existing studies, the performance and efficiency of the proposed algorithm are investigated in nonlinear system identification with a large number of unknowns. The proposed algorithm is implemented on three moment-frame buildings with 8, 54, and 60 unknowns. In addition, a numerical example is provided to analyze the case in which the exact model is not among the plausible models. To verify the performance of the hybrid identification method, robust simulations with synthetic measurement noises and modeling errors were generated using the Monte Carlo random simulation method. The result shows the method can be used to simultaneously select the optimal model class and identify its unknown states and parameters in an online manner.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".