Modeling seasonal variation for mosquito-borne disease in the tropical monsoon environment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Mosquitoes play an important role in the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. Considering the sensitivity of mosquitoes’ aquatic stage to the seasonal shift, in this paper, we present a seasonally forced mosquito-borne epidemic model by incorporating mosquitoes’ aquatic stage (eggs, larvae, and pupae) and seasonal shift factor, which is a periodic discontinuous differential system. Firstly, some sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a disease-free solution are obtained. Further, we define the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ R 0 , and obtain the stability of the disease-free solution when $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ R 0 is less than one. And, if $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ R 0 is greater than one, the mosquito-borne disease is uniformly persistent and the model admits a positive periodic solution. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the main theoretical results. In addition, simulation results also imply that ignoring the effects of seasonal succession can overestimate or underestimate mosquito-borne disease trends.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".