Geo-Spatial Data Visualization and Critical Metrics Predictions for Canadian Elections
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Open data published by various organizations is intended to make the data available to the public. All over the world, numerous organizations maintain a considerable number of open databases containing a lot of facts and numbers. However, most of them do not offer a concise and insightful data interpretation or visualization tool, which can help users to process all of the information in a consistently comparable way. Canadian Federal and Provincial Elections is an example of these databases. This information exists in numerous websites, as separate tables so that the user needs to traverse through a tree structure of scattered information on the site, and the user is left with the comparison, without providing proper tools, data-interpretation or visualizations. In this paper, we provide technical details of addressing this problem, by using the Canadian Elections data (since 1867) as a specific case study as it has numerous technical challenges. We hope that the methodology used here can help in developing similar tools to achieve some of the goals of publicly available datasets. The developed tool contains data visualization, trend analysis, and prediction components. The visualization enables the users to interact with the data through various techniques, including Geospatial visualization. To reproduce the results, we have open-sourced the tool.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".