Fiscal Capacity, Democratic Institutions and Social Welfare Outcomes in Developing Countries
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to gauge the various determinants of social \nsector spending captured by social protection and education spending in \na cross section of developing countries, a subject on which there is scant \nempirical evidence. We hypothesize that fiscal capacity is necessary but \nnot sufficient for resource allocation in this area, because the political will \nto do so must also be present. Using a panel data instrumental variable \napproach, we find that greater fiscal capacity robustly raises social spending in developing countries in the period 1990 to 2010. It is also strongly \nevident that rising democratisation enhances social sector spending; the \npresence of greater democracy and higher fiscal capacity could reinforce \nthis effect. Our work also innovatively incorporates inequality into the \nanalysis, finding that social expenditure is greater in more egalitarian \nsocieties. Military expenditure also appears to crowd out social protection \nexpenditure, but not robustly
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it