An elicitation process to quantify Bayesian networks for dam failure analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Bayesian networks support the probabilistic failure analysis of complex systems, e.g., dams and bridges, needed for a better understanding of the system reliability and for taking mitigation actions. In particular, they are useful in representing graphically the interactions among system components, while the quantitative strength of the interrelationships between the variables is measured using conditional probabilities. However, due to a lack of objective data it often becomes necessary to rely on expert judgment to provide subjective probabilities to quantify the model. This paper proposes an elicitation process that can be used to support the collection of valid and reliable data with the specific aim of quantifying a Bayesian network, while minimizing the adverse impact of biases to which judgment is commonly subjected. To illustrate how this framework works, it is applied to a real-life case study regarding the safety of the Mountain Chute Dam and Generating Station, which is located on the Madawaska River in Ontario, Canada. This contribution provides a demonstration of the usefulness of eliciting engineering expertise with regard to system reliability analysis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.021 | 0.085 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".