Modeling of Short-Term Electricity Demand and Comparison of Machine Learning Approaches for Load Forecasting
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Electricity is a special commodity that has to be kept available at all times. In fact, power plants need to have accurate forecast of electricity demand in order to provide enough electricity for customers. Final customers are able to establish their own power plants to decrease their dependency on the grid. For example rooftop photovoltaic panels are getting more popular among residential customers. It seems that meteorological variables such as solar irradiance play an important role in load forecasting. Moreover, temperature is also a main determinant of electricity demand. In this paper, we propose a model for short-term load forecasting which consists of hourly weather data (including seasonal variation as well) and historical load data. Machine learning algorithms such as support vector regression (SVR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and a multilayer neural network (NN) are used for short-term load forecasting. In order to improve the forecast accuracy (smaller mean absolute error) of NN, we propose a dual phase forecasting method. In the first phase, data driven double exponential smoothing (DDDES) is used to generate electricity load forecasts. In the second phase, the results of first phase forecasting are fed into a multilayer NN to have more accurate forecasts of electricity demand. It is shown that NN outperforms the other two methods. Our data analysis shows a significant improvement in terms of performance where maximum mean absolute error (MAE) decreases from 367.26 to 115.30.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".