Prediction of COVID-19 Severity Using Chest Computed Tomography and Laboratory Measurements: Evaluation Using a Machine Learning Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Most of the mortality resulting from COVID-19 has been associated with severe disease. Effective treatment of severe cases remains a challenge due to the lack of early detection of the infection. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop an effective prediction model for COVID-19 severity by combining radiological outcome with clinical biochemical indexes. METHODS: A total of 46 patients with COVID-19 (10 severe, 36 nonsevere) were examined. To build the prediction model, a set of 27 severe and 151 nonsevere clinical laboratory records and computerized tomography (CT) records were collected from these patients. We managed to extract specific features from the patients' CT images by using a recently published convolutional neural network. We also trained a machine learning model combining these features with clinical laboratory results. RESULTS: score of 0.89, which showed a 6% and 15% improvement, respectively, compared to the models based on laboratory test features only. In addition, we developed a statistical model for forecasting COVID-19 severity based on the results of patients' laboratory tests performed before they were classified as severe cases; this model yielded an AUROC score of 0.81. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first report predicting the clinical progression of COVID-19, as well as forecasting severity, based on a combined analysis using laboratory tests and CT images.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".