Impacto de la COVID-19 en las remesas y sus efectos contracíclicos en las economías regionales en México
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Este artículo analiza las implicaciones de la COVID-19 en la recepción de remesas de los estados y sus efectos en el crecimiento económico durante 2020. Con una metodología basada en simulaciones de un modelo macro regional y el uso de cuadrantes, como instrumento para la construcción de un semáforo de alertas, se concluye que nuevamente las remesas serán de los pocos mecanismos contracíclicos con los que contará la economía mexicana para afrontar una crisis económica. Sin embargo, el efecto de amortiguamiento de las remesas sobre la actividad económica de los estados será heterogéneo y, en algunos estados, no suficiente para contrarrestar la pérdida de ingreso y empleo que experimentará el país. La región tradicional de migración será una de las más beneficiadas del efecto contracíclico de las remesas.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".