Accurate Classification of Pediatric Colonic Inflammatory Bowel Disease Subtype Using a Random Forest Machine Learning Classifier
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (PIBD) classes algorithm was developed to bring consistency to labelling of colonic IBD, but labels are exclusively based on features atypical for ulcerative colitis (UC). AIM: The aim of the study was to develop an algorithm and identify features that discriminate between pediatric UC and colonic Crohn disease (CD). METHODS: Baseline clinical, endoscopic, radiologic, and histologic data, including the PIBD class features in 74 colonic IBD (56: UC, 18: colonic CD) patients were collected. The PIBD class features and additional features common to UC were used to perform initial clustering, using similarity network fusion (SNF). We trained a Random Forest (RF) classifier on the full dataset and used a leave-one-out approach to evaluate model accuracy. The top-features were used to build a new classifier, which we tested on 15 previously unused patients. We then performed clustering with SNF on the top RF features and assessed ability to discriminate between UC and colonic-CD independent of a supervised model. RESULTS: The initial SNF clustering with 58 patients demonstrated 2 groups: group 1 (n = 39, 90% UC) and group 2 (n = 19, 68% colonic-CD). Our RF classifier correctly labelled 97% of the 58 patients based on leave-one-out cross validation and identified the 7 most important features (3 histological and 4 endoscopic) to clinically distinguish these groups. We trained a new RF classifier with the top 7 features and found 100% accuracy in a set of 15 held-out patients. Finally, post hoc clustering with these 7 features revealed 2 groups of patients: group 1 (n = 55, 98% UC) and group 2 (n = 18, 94% colonic-CD). CONCLUSIONS: A combination of supervised and unsupervised analyses identified a short list of features, which consistently distinguish UC from colonic CD. Future directions include validation in other populations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".