Magnetic flux expulsion from the core as a possible cause of the unusually large acceleration of the North magnetic pole during the 1990s
Bibliographic record
Abstract
[1] The north magnetic pole (NMP) has been drifting in a north-northwesterly direction since the 19th century. Both local surveys and geomagnetic models derived from observatory and satellite data show that the NMP suddenly accelerated during the 1990s. Its speed increased from about 15 km/yr in 1989 to about 60 km/yr in 2002, after which it started to decrease slightly. Using a Green's function, we show that this acceleration is mainly caused by a large, negative secular variation change in the radial magnetic field at the core surface, under the New Siberian Islands. This change occurs in a region of the core surface where there is a pair of secular variation patches of opposite polarities, which we suggest could be the signature of a so-called “polar magnetic upwelling” of the type observed in some recent numerical dynamo simulations. Indeed, a local analysis of the radial secular variation and magnetic field gradient suggests that the secular variation change under the New Siberian Islands is likely to be accompanied by a significant amount of magnetic diffusion, in agreement with such a mechanism. We thus hypothesize that the negative secular variation change under the New Siberian Islands that produced the NMP acceleration could result from a slowdown of the polar magnetic upwelling during the 1990s. We finally note that the NMP drift speed is determined by such a combination of factors that it is at present not possible to forecast its future evolution.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".