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Record W3090303393

Fiscal implications of the pandemic

2020· preprint· en· W3090303393 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Ke Pang, Christos Shiamptanis

Bibliographic record

VenueRePEc: Research Papers in Economics · 2020
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicFiscal Policies and Political Economy
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDebtEconomicsMonetary economicsGovernment debtSolvencyInternal debtDebt-to-GDP ratioExternal debtFiscal policyMacroeconomicsMarket liquidity
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This paper studies the Canadian fiscal finances in the aftermath of the pandemic. We use a rich set of fiscal categories to estimate their responsiveness to debt. We find that debt has been financed historically mainly by tax revenue. We use our estimates to derive the Canadian debt limit, the maximum level of debt beyond which debt solvency is in doubt. We use a small open economy model which is subject to exogenous pandemic shocks. The pandemic shocks reduce the hours worked and consumption, which in turn lower output, reduce the tax revenue and raise the debt level. We then investigate whether adverse shocks caused by the pandemic can push the debt beyond its debt limit. We find that even in the worst case scenario, the Canadian government will not breach its debt limit.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.004
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Other · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.961
Threshold uncertainty score0.262

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.004
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0030.002
Scholarly communication0.0030.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0060.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.084
GPT teacher head0.320
Teacher spread0.236 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreOther

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2020
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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Same venueRePEc: Research Papers in EconomicsSame topicFiscal Policies and Political EconomyFrench-language works237,207