Using blood donors and solid organ transplant donors and recipients to estimate the seroprevalence of cytomegalovirus and Epstein–Barr virus in Canada: A cross-sectional study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infections are common, causing significant morbidity in pregnancy (congenital CMV) and transplant recipients (CMV, EBV). Canadian prevalence data are needed to model disease burden and develop strategies for future vaccines. We estimated prevalence using screening data from blood donors and solid organ transplant (SOT) donors and recipients. Methods: = 1,253,350) (2005-2014), studying associations with age, sex, organ, year, and geographic region. Results: CMV seroprevalence rises gradually with age. By age 70, CMV seropositivity ranged from 67% (blood donors) to 73% (SOT recipients). Significant proportions of women of child-bearing age were CMV-seronegative (organ donors, 44%; SOT recipients, 43%; blood donors, 61%). Blood donor CMV seroprevalence decreased from 48% in Western Canada to 30% in Eastern Canada. Women were more likely to be CMV-seropositive (ORs = 1.58, 1.45, and 1.11 for organ donors, SOT recipients, and blood donors, respectively) and EBV-seropositive (ORs = 1.87 and 1.46 for organ donors and SOT recipients, respectively). EBV prevalence rises rapidly, and by age 17-29 years, 81% of SOT recipients and 90% of organ donors were seropositive. Conclusions: Canada has relatively low and perhaps decreasing age-specific EBV and CMV prevalence, making Canadians vulnerable to primary infection-associated morbidity and suggesting benefit from future vaccines. Collection and analysis of routine serology screening data are useful for observing trends.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".