Skewed thermodynamic geometry and optimal free energy estimation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Free energy differences are a central quantity of interest in physics, chemistry, and biology. We develop design principles that improve the precision and accuracy of free energy estimators, which have potential applications to screening for targeted drug discovery. Specifically, by exploiting the connection between the work statistics of time-reversed protocol pairs, we develop near-equilibrium approximations for moments of the excess work and analyze the dominant contributions to the precision and accuracy of standard nonequilibrium free-energy estimators. Within linear response, minimum-dissipation protocols follow the geodesics of the Riemannian metric induced by the Stokes friction tensor. We find that the next-order contribution arises from the rank-3 supra-Stokes tensor that skews the geometric structure such that minimum-dissipation protocols follow the geodesics of a generalized cubic Finsler metric. Thus, near equilibrium, the supra-Stokes tensor determines the leading-order contribution to the bias of bidirectional free-energy estimators.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.015 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".