Predictive analytics on open big data for supporting smart transportation services
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the current era of big data, huge quantities of valuable data, which may be of different levels of veracity, are being generated at a rapid rate. Embedded into these big data are implicit, previously unknown and potentially useful information and valuable knowledge that can be discovered by data science solutions, which apply techniques like data mining. There has been a trend that more and more collections of these big data have been made openly available in science, government and non-profit organizations so that people could collaboratively study and analysis these open big data. In this article, we focus on open big data for public transit because public transit (e.g., bus) as a means of transportation is a vital part of many people's lives. As time is a precious resource, bus delays could negatively affect commuters' plans. Unfortunately, they are inevitable. Hence, many existing works focused on predicting bus delays. However, predicting on-time or early buses is also important. For instance, commuters who come to a bus stop on time may still miss their buses if the buses leave early. So, in this article, we examine open big data about bus performance (e.g., early, on-time, and late stops). We analyze the data with frequent pattern mining and make predictions with decision-tree based classification. For illustration, we perform predictive analytics on real-life open big data available on Winnipeg Open Data Portal, about bus performance from Winnipeg Transit. It shows the benefits of predictive analytics on open big data for supporting smart transportation services.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".