A 38-gene model comprised of key TET2-associated genes shows additive utility to high-risk prostate cancer cases in the prognostication of biochemical recurrence
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Early treatment of patients at risk for developing aggressive prostate cancer is able to delay metastasis and reduce mortality; as such, up-front identification of these patients is critical. Several risk classification systems, including CAPRA-S, are currently used for disease prognostication. However, high-risk patients identified by these systems can still exhibit wide-ranging disease outcomes, leading to overtreatment of some patients in this group. METHODS: The master methylation regulator TET2 is downregulated in prostate cancer, where its loss is linked to aggressive disease and poor outcome. Using a random forest strategy, we developed a model based on the expression of 38 genes associated with TET2 utilizing 100 radical prostatectomy samples (training cohort) with a 49% biochemical recurrence rate. This 38-gene model was comprised of both upregulated and downregulated TET2-associated genes with a binary outcome, and was further assessed in an independent validation (n = 423) dataset for association with biochemical recurrence. RESULTS: 38-gene model status was able to correctly identify patients exhibiting recurrence with 81.4% sensitivity in the validation cohort, and added significant prognostic utility to the high-risk CAPRA-S classification group. Patients considered high-risk by CAPRA-S with negative 38-gene model status exhibited no statistically significant difference in time to recurrence from low-risk CAPRA-S patients, indicating that the expression of TET2-associated genes is able to separate truly high-risk cases from those which have a more benign disease course. CONCLUSIONS: The 38-gene model may hold potential in determining which patients would truly benefit from aggressive treatment course, demonstrating a novel role for genes linked to TET2 in the prognostication of PCa and indicating the importance of TET2 dysregulation among high-risk patient groups.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".