Seismic localization and dynamical characterization of snow avalanches and slush flows of Mt. Fuji, Japan
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Snow avalanches and slush flows are often released at the stratovolcano of Mt. Fuji, which is the highest mountain of Japan (3776 m a.s.l.). These flows represent a major natural hazard as they may attain run-out distances up to 4 km, destroy parts of the forest, and sometimes damage infrastructure. We detected large dimension flows released in the winter seasons of 2014, 2016 and 2018 using the local seismic network installed to monitor the volcanic activity of Mt. Fuji. The maximum detection distance of the seismic network is approximately 15 km for the largest avalanche size class 4–5 (Canadian avalanche classification). Using data from several seismic sensors, we applied the automated approach of amplitude source location (ASL) based on the decay of the seismic amplitudes with distance to localize and track the avalanche flow paths. We also conducted numerical simulations with Titan2D to reconstruct the avalanche trajectories and thus to assess the precision of the seismic tracking as a function of time, showing mean location errors ranging between 85 and 271 m. The average front speeds estimated from the seismic tracking, which ranged from 27 to 51 m s−1, are consistent with the numerically predicted speeds. In addition, we correlated the source amplitudes and the estimated seismic energies with the approximate run-out distances of the avalanches deduced from the ASL method. The obtained scaling relationships can be useful to empirically classify the flow size. An important task in the near future will be to develop highly effective methods for automatically detecting and tracking avalanche events in the seismic data in near-real time. One approach for the automatization of avalanche detection is the discrimination of seismic sources in the continuous recordings by applying machine learning classification methods. We expect that the precision of the flow tracking could be improved through adaptive weighting of the signals from different stations according to the source–receiver distances and angles.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".