Moments of moments of primes in arithmetic progressions
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We establish unconditional ‐results for all weighted even moments of primes in arithmetic progressions. We also study the moments of these moments and establish lower bounds under the Generalized Riemann Hypothesis (GRH). Finally, under GRH and the Linear Independence Hypothesis (LI), we prove an asymptotic for all moments of the associated limiting distribution, which, in turn, indicates that our unconditional and GRH results are essentially best possible. Using our probabilistic results, we formulate a conjecture on the moments with a precise associated range of validity, which we believe is also best possible. This last conjecture implies a ‐analog of the Montgomery‐Soundararajan conjecture on the Gaussian distribution of primes in short intervals. The ideas in our proofs include a novel application of positivity in the explicit formula and the combinatorics of arrays of characters that are fixed by certain involutions.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it