Prediction of daily maximum ozone levels using Lasso sparse modeling method
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper applies modern statistical methods in the prediction of the next-day maximum ozone concentration, as well as the maximum 8-hour-mean ozone concentration of the next day. The model uses a large number of candidate features, including the present day's hourly concentration level of various pollutants, as well as the meteorological variables of the present day's observation and the future day's forecast values. In order to solve such an ultra-high dimensional problem, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) was applied. The $L_1$ nature of this methodology enables the automatic feature dimension reduction, and a resultant sparse model. The model trained by 3-years data demonstrates relatively good prediction accuracy, with RMSE= 5.63 ppb, MAE= 4.42 ppb for predicting the next-day's maximum $O_3$ concentration, and RMSE= 5.68 ppb, MAE= 4.52 ppb for predicting the next-day's maximum 8-hour-mean $O_3$ concentration. Our modeling approach is also compared with several other methods recently applied in the field and demonstrates superiority in the prediction accuracy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".