Cardiovascular disease recurrence and long-term mortality in a tri-ethnic British cohort
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Objective Ethnic differences in cardiovascular disease incidence, but not cardiovascular disease recurrence, are reported. We characterised long-term risk of major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) and mortality following a non-fatal cardiovascular event in a British cohort of South Asians, African Caribbeans and Europeans. Methods We identified index and recurrent cardiovascular events and mortality between 1988 and 2017 using hospital records and death registry. Using multivariable hazards models, we separately calculated the adjusted HR of MACE and death following index event, adjusting for demographics, vascular and lifestyle risk factors. Using interaction terms, we evaluated if decade of index event modified the association between ethnicity and outcomes. Results South Asians were younger at the index event (median age 66 years, n=396) than Europeans (69 years, n=335) and African Caribbeans (70 years, n=70). During 4228 person-years, of the 801 patients, 537 developed MACE and 338 died, with the highest crude rate of MACE in South Asians. On adjustment of baseline factors, compared with the Europeans, the higher risk of MACE (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.21) and the lower risk of mortality (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.26) in South Asians was eliminated. African Caribbeans had similar outcomes to Europeans (HR MACE 1.04, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.47; and HR death 1.07, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.64). Long-term survival following an index event improved in South Asians (p trend 0.02) and African Caribbeans (p trend 0.07) compared with Europeans. Conclusions Baseline vascular risk factors explained the observed ethnic variation in cardiovascular disease recurrence and long-term mortality, with a relative improvement in survival of minority ethnic groups over time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".