African Humid Period Precipitation Sustained by Robust Vegetation, Soil, and Lake Feedbacks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The African Humid Period ( ∼ 11,000–5,000 years before present) was the most recent of several precessionally paced wet intervals during which an increase in the Northern Hemisphere summer incoming solar radiation intensifies the West African Monsoon leading to dramatic changes over northern Africa. However, insolation anomaly alone is not sufficient and feedbacks are essential for further amplification of the monsoon. The most significant feedbacks derive from the land surface, arising from changes to vegetation, soil properties, and distribution of surface water. We show that in contrast to previous studies that have explored the individual impacts of these feedbacks, a modern climate model yields a much greater increase in precipitation in response to their collective effect. Agreement with proxies is improved while the desert‐steppe transition is pushed further northward than in any previous study. In the West African Sahel, intensities of summer daily mean and extreme precipitation increase by 150% and 90%, respectively.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".