Considerations for Development of Probabilistic Assessments for Nuclear Systems and Components
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The risk-informed approach has been increasingly utilized by the nuclear industry and the regulators in Canada and around the world. This involves the assessment of plant risk and the considerations for defence-in-depth, safety margin and other nuclear safety principles. The estimates of reliability metric have been commonly obtained using probabilistic methods that involve distributed inputs. While the engineering focus has typically been on finding a solution for a specific problem, the scientific community and the regulators are concerned with generic principles, foundation of probabilistic approaches and definition of reliability metric used in the assessment. In this paper, the concept of a time-dependent reliability framework is discussed to facilitate selecting the appropriate approach to meet, in principle, the assessment intent. In the end, any probabilistic assessment should be fundamentally meaningful, consistent and transparent to inspire confidence in the public and the regulators.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.058 | 0.119 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.009 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".