Understanding Québec’s Strategic Choices in Domestic and Foreign Debt Markets
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Much of the discussion on Québec’s debt has centered on size and sustainability of provincial debt. As yet, there is no systematic study of the province’s strategic choices in debt markets, which choices result in the public debt figures that spawn concerns about debt sustainability among policymakers. This essay attempts to fill that research gap by analyzing the mix of factors that motivate Québec’s choice of debt habitat in domestic and foreign markets. Using a menu of estimation techniques, the essay finds that while a mix of bond-specific, institutional, and political factors explains whether Québec issues debt in domestic markets or foreign markets, risk factors in foreign markets tend to have a minimal influence on foreign currency habitat choice. Estimations are based on public accounts data (1960–2014) and information on 160 provincial bonds (1990–2014). Results provide an empirical framework for understanding the structure of debt issuance choices and should feed-forward to policy discussions on the character and sustainability of Québec’s debt burden.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".