Semiparametric isotonic regression modelling and estimation for group testing data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the group testing procedure, several individual samples are grouped and the pooled samples, instead of each individual sample, are tested for outcome status (e.g., infectious disease status). Although this cost-effectiveness strategy in data collection is both labor and time efficient, it poses statistical challenges to derive statistically and computationally efficient estimators under semiparametric models. We consider semiparametric isotonic regression models for the simultaneous estimation of the conditional probability curve and covariate effects, in which a parametric form for combining the covariate information is assumed and the monotonic link function is left unspecified. We develop an expectation-maximization algorithm to overcome the computational challenge and embed the pool-adjacent violators algorithm in the M-step to facilitate the computation. We establish the large sample behavior of the proposed estimators and examine their finite sample performance in simulation studies. We apply the proposed method to data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for illustration.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.030 | 0.093 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".