A novel prognostic biomarker for muscle invasive bladder urothelial carcinoma based on 11 DNA methylation signature
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Muscle-invasive bladder urothelial carcinoma (MIBC) is a highly invasive cancer, which leads to prevalent recurrence and poor prognosis. Exploring the association of DNA methylation and the prognosis of MIBC will thus be of important value in clinical management and treatment. Bumphunter method and adaptive lasso regression were used to explore the relationship between different methylation regions (DMRs) and the prognosis of MIBC. Next, we constructed a risk prognosis model and validated this model. Moreover, the performance of this risk model was examined by using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). We identified 58,449 different methylation sites and 490 different methylation regions. Among them, 11 DMRs were associated with the prognosis of MIBC through rigorous screening. Through the linear combination of 11 DMRs, a putative marker was developed, which can distinguish the survival risk in both the training dataset (HR = 2.58, 95% CI = (1.64, 4.05)) and the verification dataset (HR = 2.77, 95% CI = (1.25, 6.15)). Relatively high predictive values were observed from this model for training dataset (AUC = 0.791) and verification dataset (AUC = 0.668). Stratified analysis showed that the association was independent of gender. A nomogram was additionally generated to predict 5-year survival probability containing risk score and pathological stage. Its performance was evaluated by applying calibration curve. The methylation signature risk model based on 11 DMRs may be a reliable prognostic signature for MIBC, which provides new insights into development of individualized therapy for MIBC.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".