What are the volume and budget needs to provide chemotherapy to all children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in Thailand? Development and application of an estimation tool
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Insufficient access to anticancer medicines may contribute to the wide survival differences of children with cancers across the globe. We developed a tool to estimate the volume of medicines and budget requirements to provide chemotherapy to children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). DESIGN: Development and application of an estimation tool. SETTING: Paediatric oncology hospital departments in Thailand. PARTICIPANTS: 318 children aged 0-14 years diagnosed with ALL and 215 children with undiagnosed ALL. INTERVENTIONS: Estimates of volume and budget requirements for administering a full course of chemotherapy for ALL and a further course for children who relapse, according to National Treatment Guidelines. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome measures were the volume (mg) and cost (US$) of medicines needed to treat children with ALL. For medicines whose main indication is paediatric ALL (asparaginase and 6-mercaptopurine), we estimated the difference between volume needed and actual sales in 2017 (secondary outcome). RESULTS: Ten anticancer medicines and four chemoprotective agents are needed for the treatment of paediatric ALL according to the Thai treatment guidelines. Of these 14 medicines, 13 are included in the WHO essential medicines list for children. All are available as generics. We estimated that essential chemotherapy and chemoprotective agents to treat all children diagnosed with ALL in Thailand in 2017 would cost US$ 814 952 (US$ 1 365 422 for diagnosed and undiagnosed children), which corresponds to 0.005% (0.008%) of the country's total health expenditure. The volumes of asparaginase and 6-mercaptopurine available on the Thai market in 2017 were more than sufficient (2.3 and 1.5 times the amounts needed, respectively) to treat all children diagnosed with ALL. CONCLUSIONS: Procuring sufficient quantities of essential medicines to treat children with ALL requires relatively modest resources. Medicine cost should not be a major barrier to ALL treatment in similar settings.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.028 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".