European Puts, Credit Protection, and Endogenous Default
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In a default corridor [Formula: see text] that the stock price can never enter, a deep out-of-the-money American put option replicates a pure credit contract (Carr and Wu, 2011, A Simple Robust Link between American Puts and Credit Protection, Review of Financial Studies 24, 473–505). Assuming discrete (one-period-ahead predictable) cash flows, we show that an endogenous credit-risk model generates, along with the default event, a default corridor at the cash-outflow dates, where [Formula: see text] is given by these outflows (i.e., debt service and negative earnings minus dividends). In this endogenous setting, however, the put replicating the credit contract is not American, but European. Specifically, the crucial assumption that determines an endogenous default corridor at the cash-outflow dates is that equityholders’ deep pockets absorb these outflows; that is, no equityholders’ fresh money, no endogenous corridor.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".