Mortality Prediction from Hospital-Acquired Infections in Trauma Patients Using an Unbalanced Dataset
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Machine learning has been widely used to predict diseases, and it is used to derive impressive knowledge in the healthcare domain. Our objective was to predict in-hospital mortality from hospital-acquired infections in trauma patients on an unbalanced dataset. METHODS: Our study was a cross-sectional analysis on trauma patients with hospital-acquired infections who were admitted to Shiraz Trauma Hospital from March 20, 2017, to March 21, 2018. The study data was obtained from the surveillance hospital infection database. The data included sex, age, mechanism of injury, body region injured, severity score, type of intervention, infection day after admission, and microorganism causes of infections. We developed our mortality prediction model by random under-sampling, random over-sampling, clustering (k-mean)-C5.0, SMOTE-C5.0, ADASYN-C5.5, SMOTE-SVM, ADASYN-SVM, SMOTE-ANN, and ADASYN-ANN among hospital-acquired infections in trauma patients. All mortality predictions were conducted by IBM SPSS Modeler 18. RESULTS: We studied 549 individuals with hospital-acquired infections in a trauma hospital in Shiraz during 2017 and 2018. Prediction accuracy before balancing of the dataset was 86.16%. In contrast, the prediction accuracy for the balanced dataset achieved by random under-sampling, random over-sampling, clustering (k-mean)-C5.0, SMOTE-C5.0, ADASYN-C5.5, and SMOTE-SVM was 70.69%, 94.74%, 93.02%, 93.66%, 90.93%, and 100%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that cleaning an unbalanced dataset increases the accuracy of the classification model. Also, predicting mortality by a clustered under-sampling approach was more precise in comparison to random under-sampling and random over-sampling methods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".