Assessing the climate suitability and potential economic impacts of Oak wilt in Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We assess risks posed by oak wilt-a disease caused by the fungal pathogen Bretziella fagacearum. Though not currently found in Canada, our distribution models indicate that suitable climate conditions currently occur in southern Ontario for B. fagacearum and two of its main insect dispersal vectors, Colopterus truncatus and Carpophilus sayi. Climate habitat for these species is projected to expand northward under climate change, with much of the oak range in eastern Canada becoming climatically suitable within the next two decades. Potential costs for the removal and replacement of oak street trees ranged from CDN$266 to $420 million, with variation related to uncertainty in costs, rate of tree replacement, and city-level estimates of oak street tree density. The value of standing oak timber in eastern Canada was estimated at CDN$126 million using provincial stumpage fees and as a CDN$24 million annual contribution to national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) when calculated using a combination of economic and forestry product statistics. These values can help inform the scale of eradication and/or management efforts in the event of future oak wilt introductions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".