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2019· book-chapter· en· W3099673123 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueOxford University Press eBooks · 2019
Typebook-chapter
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicScience and Climate Studies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsSkepticismPaceCertaintyFellHistoryNatural (archaeology)PoliticsArt historyPolitical scienceGeographyLawEpistemologyPhilosophyArchaeologyCartography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

It was April 11, 2014, and the McGill University press release went online at 1:30 in the afternoon. Although I’d published many articles, they were on fundamental geoscience; the release summarized the first one that had significant social and political consequences. Its title, “Scaling Fluctuation Analysis and Statistical Hypothesis Testing of Anthropogenic Warming,” was arcane, but the release was clear enough: “Statistical analysis rules out natural- warming hypothesis with more than 99% certainty” (the article, published in Climate Dynamics, is hereafter referred to as CD). It had been fifteen months since the original submission went to peer review, but now the pace picked up dramatically. Within hours, the tone was set by the skeptic majordomo Viscount Christopher Monckton of Brenchely, who displayed his Oxbridge classics erudition by deliciously qualifying the paper as a “mephitically ectoplasmic emanation from the Forces of Darkness.” Three days later, with the release getting 12,000 hits per day, the “Friends of Science” sent an aggressive missive to the McGill chancellor asking that it be removed from McGill’s site. The Calgary- based group with its Orwellian name was set up in 2002 to promote the theory that “The sun is the driver of climate change. Not you. Not CO2.” (Fig. 6.1). One could understand their thunder. Rather than trying to prove that the warming was anthropogenic— something that is impossible to do “beyond reasonable doubt”— the new paper closed the debate2 by doing something far simpler: by disproving the “Friends” Giant Natural Fluctuation (GNF) hypothesis. If we exclude either divine or extraterrestrial intervention, then the warming is natural or it is human; there is no third alternative. The skeptics were stuck. To add insult to injury, their prepackaged sermons on the inadequacies of computer models or their speculations about solar variability were irrelevant. Provoked by the media attention and several Op- Eds in the hours, days, and weeks that followed, in email, blogs, and Twitter, I was treated to a deluge of abuse: “atheist,” “Marxist,” “hippy name,” and so on— everything, it seemed, short of death threats.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Other · Consensus signal: Other
Teacher disagreement score0.866
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.027
GPT teacher head0.205
Teacher spread0.178 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it