Testing the Unemployment Hysteresis in G7 Countries: A Fresh Evidence from Fourier Threshold Unit Root Test
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this study, we test the validity of unemployment hysteresis in G7 countries over the period of 1991 – 2019 using monthly data by suggesting a new unit root test that considers both structural breaks and nonlinearity that we entitled as Fourier Threshold Unit Root (FTUR) test. The results of the test show that unemployment rates of Canada, Japan, and the USA are nonlinear. Thus, for these countries we apply the FTUR test, while for the remaining series, we employ the Fourier ADF unit root test. The results of unit root tests show that unemployment hysteresis holds in Canada, France, and the United Kingdom, while NonAccelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment applies in Germany, and Italy. We could not reject the null of a unit root for Japan and the USA only in the second regime, where the unemployment series are rising. So, we conclude that the policymakers of Japan and the USA should follow fiscal stabilization policies only in recession periods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".