Astronomical Image Quality Prediction based on Environmental and Telescope Operating Conditions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Intelligent scheduling of the sequence of scientific exposures taken at ground-based astronomical observatories is massively challenging. Observing time is over-subscribed and atmospheric conditions are constantly changing. We propose to guide observatory scheduling using machine learning. Leveraging a 15-year archive of exposures, environmental, and operating conditions logged by the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope, we construct a probabilistic data-driven model that accurately predicts image quality. We demonstrate that, by optimizing the opening and closing of twelve vents placed on the dome of the telescope, we can reduce dome-induced turbulence and improve telescope image quality by (0.05-0.2 arc-seconds). This translates to a reduction in exposure time (and hence cost) of $\sim 10-15\%$. Our study is the first step toward data-based optimization of the multi-million dollar operations of current and next-generation telescopes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".