THE FREQUENCY OF ELLIPTIC CURVE GROUPS OVER PRIME FINITE FIELDS
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Letting $p$ vary over all primes and $E$ vary over all elliptic curves over the finite field $\mathbb{F}_p$, we study the frequency to which a given group $G$ arises as a group of points $E(\mathbb{F}_p)$. It is well-known that the only permissible groups are of the form $G_{m,k}:=\mathbb{Z}/m\mathbb{Z}\times \mathbb{Z}/mk\mathbb{Z}$. Given such a candidate group, we let $M(G_{m,k})$ be the frequency to which the group $G_{m,k}$ arises in this way. Previously, the second and fourth named authors determined an asymptotic formula for $M(G_{m,k})$ assuming a conjecture about primes in short arithmetic progressions. In this paper, we prove several unconditional bounds for $M(G_{m,k})$, pointwise and on average. In particular, we show that $M(G_{m,k})$ is bounded above by a constant multiple of the expected quantity when $m\le k^A$ and that the conjectured asymptotic for $M(G_{m,k})$ holds for almost all groups $G_{m,k}$ when $m\le k^{1/4-\epsilon}$. We also apply our methods to study the frequency to which a given integer $N$ arises as the group order $\#E(\mathbb{F}_p)$.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it