Modeling the past and future activity of the Halleyids meteor showers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present a new numerical model of the Eta-Aquariid and Orionid meteor shower. Through the modelling of millions meteoroids released from comet 1P/Halley, we simulate the characteristics of each Eta-Aquariid and Orionid apparition between 1985 and 2050. The modelled showers activity duration, shape, maximum zenithal hourly rates (ZHR) values, and mass distributions are compared with several decades of meteor observations in the optical and radar range. Our simulations suggest that the age of the Eta-Aquariids shortly exceeds 5000 years, while the Orionids are composed of older material. Several Eta-Aquariid outbursts are expected in the future, in particular around 2023-2024 and 2045-2046. The evolution of 1P/Halley's meteoroid streams is strongly influenced by mean motion resonances with Jupiter, that might be responsible of a ~12 year cycle in the Orionids activity variations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".