The Size Distribution of Trans-Neptunian Bodies
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
[Condensed] We search 0.02 deg^2 for trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with m<=29.2 (diameter ~15 km) using the ACS on HST. Three new objects are discovered, roughly 25 times fewer than expected from extrapolation of the differential sky density Sigma(m) of brighter objects. The ACS and other recent TNO surveys show departures from a power law size distribution. Division of the TNO sample into ``classical Kuiper belt'' (CKB) and ``Excited'' samples reveals that Sigma(m) differs for the two populations at 96% confidence. A rolling-index or double power law adequately fits all data. Implications include: The total mass of the CKB is ~0.010 M_Earth, only a few times Pluto's mass, and is predominately in the form of ~100 km bodies. The mass of Excited objects is perhaps a few times larger. The Excited class has a shallower bright-end size distribution; the largest objects, including Pluto, comprise tens of percent of the total mass whereas the largest CKBOs are only ~2% of its mass. The predicted mass of the largest Excited body is close to the Pluto mass; the largest CKBO is ~60 times less massive. The deficit of small TNOs occurs for sizes subject to disruption by present-day collisions, suggesting extensive depletion by collisions. Both accretion and erosion appearing to have proceeded to more advanced stages in the Excited class than the CKB. The absence of distant TNOs implies that any distant (60 AU) population must have less than the CKB mass in the form of objects 40 km or larger. The KBO populations are far sparser than theoretical estimates of the required precursor population for short period comets.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it