Deep-Learning-Based Gridded Downscaling of Surface Meteorological Variables in Complex Terrain. Part I: Daily Maximum and Minimum 2-m Temperature
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Many statistical downscaling methods require observational inputs and expert knowledge and thus cannot be generalized well across different regions. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are deep-learning models that have generalization abilities for various applications. In this research, we modify UNet, a semantic-segmentation CNN, and apply it to the downscaling of daily maximum/minimum 2-m temperature (TMAX/TMIN) over the western continental United States from 0.25° to 4-km grid spacings. We select high-resolution (HR) elevation, low-resolution (LR) elevation, and LR TMAX/TMIN as inputs; train UNet using Parameter–Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data over the south- and central-western United States from 2015 to 2018; and test it independently over both the training domains and the northwestern United States from 2018 to 2019. We found that the original UNet cannot generate enough fine-grained spatial details when transferred to the new northwestern U.S. domain. In response, we modified the original UNet by assigning an extra HR elevation output branch/loss function and training the modified UNet to reproduce both the supervised HR TMAX/TMIN and the unsupervised HR elevation. This improvement is named “UNet-Autoencoder (AE).” UNet-AE supports semisupervised model fine-tuning for unseen domains and showed better gridpoint-level performance with more than 10% mean absolute error (MAE) reduction relative to the original UNet. On the basis of its performance relative to the 4-km PRISM, UNet-AE is a good option to provide generalizable downscaling for regions that are underrepresented by observations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it