Predictive modeling of proliferative vitreoretinopathy using automated machine learning by ophthalmologists without coding experience
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We aimed to assess the feasibility of machine learning (ML) algorithm design to predict proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR) by ophthalmologists without coding experience using automated ML (AutoML). The study was a retrospective cohort study of 506 eyes who underwent pars plana vitrectomy for rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD) by a single surgeon at a tertiary-care hospital between 2012 and 2019. Two ophthalmologists without coding experience used an interactive application in MATLAB to build and evaluate ML algorithms for the prediction of postoperative PVR using clinical data from the electronic health records. The clinical features associated with postoperative PVR were determined by univariate feature selection. The area under the curve (AUC) for predicting postoperative PVR was better for models that included pre-existing PVR as an input. The quadratic support vector machine (SVM) model built using all selected clinical features had an AUC of 0.90, a sensitivity of 63.0%, and a specificity of 97.8%. An optimized Naïve Bayes algorithm that did not include pre-existing PVR as an input feature had an AUC of 0.81, a sensitivity of 54.3%, and a specificity of 92.4%. In conclusion, the development of ML models for the prediction of PVR by ophthalmologists without coding experience is feasible. Input from a data scientist might still be needed to tackle class imbalance-a common challenge in ML classification using real-world clinical data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.011 | 0.042 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".