RELATIVE ERRORS FOR BOOTSTRAP APPROXIMATIONS OF THE SERIAL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We consider the first serial correlation coefficient under an AR(1) model where errors are not assumed to be Gaussian. In this case it is necessary to consider bootstrap approximations for tests based on the statistic since the distribution of errors is unknown. We obtain saddle-point approximations for tail probabilities of the statistic and its bootstrap version and use these to show that the bootstrap tail probabilities approximate the true values with given relative errors, thus extending the classical results of Daniels [Biometrika 43 (1956) 169-185] for the Gaussian case. The methods require conditioning on the set of odd numbered observations and suggest a conditional bootstrap which we show has similar relative error properties.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it