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Record W3107216413 · doi:10.5539/ass.v16n12p93

Elements of Sovereign-Debt Default in the MENA Region

2020· article· en· W3107216413 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Nicholas Bitar

Bibliographic record

VenueAsian Social Science · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicFiscal Policies and Political Economy
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDefaultEconomicsSovereign defaultDebtOpenness to experienceExternal debtMonetary economicsPolitical instabilityInternal debtCountry riskDebt-to-GDP ratioPoliticsSovereigntyInternational economicsMacroeconomicsSovereign debtPolitical scienceFinance

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

In the past half-century, the MENA region has witnessed several political uproars, varying between internal instability and conflict to external assaults and disputes. Studies conducted on developing countries have shown that political risk factors have, one way or another, rushed the governments’ decision to default on their debt. The purpose of this study is to examine the significance of the determinants of sovereign debt default. The aim here is to find the correct set of independent variables, whose effect is significant and are agreed upon generally in the literature. The empirical study is a panel data that samples 35 years 1984-2018 for all MENA countries. From the political perspective, I find that corruption and cohesion are the factors that stand behind sovereign debt default. From the economic standpoint, inflation and debt to GDP ratio are significant and positively related indicators to sovereign debt defaults. Whereas, trade openness is significant and negatively related. Moreover, the results reveal that GDP growth is insignificant, this finding contradicts the literature of the determinants of sovereign debt.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.029
Threshold uncertainty score0.058

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.042
GPT teacher head0.254
Teacher spread0.212 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2020
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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