From Massive Trajectory Data to Traffic Modeling for Better Behavior Prediction in a Usage-Based Insurance Context
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Usage-Based Insurance (UBI) is an insurance framework that has made its appearance in the last few years. It allows direct measurement of the traveling of policyholders, hence the growing interest of the industry to better understand driving behaviors. UBI generates large data volumes, from which events can be extracted, like harsh brakes or accelerations. Still, these events are measured without contextual information, which limits their explanatory power. Traffic is one of these types of contextual information that may have great potential, but access to such data remains an issue. Solutions exist, like traffic data from external providers, but for insurance companies that conduct business over large areas, this could result in very large costs. This paper demonstrates that data from insurance companies acquired via UBI can be used to model traffic. A method based on link travel time is proposed and tested on four Canadian cities. Then, routes created with the model are compared with those created using Google Maps. The results show that for 38 routes with an average length of around 5 km, the difference between the travel time of the routes of the proposed model and Google Maps is as small as one second on average.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".