Detecting early or late changes in linear models with heteroscedastic errors
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We construct and study a test to detect possible change points in the regression parameters of a linear model when the model errors and covariates may exhibit heteroscedasticity. Being based on a new trimming scheme for the CUSUM process introduced in Horváth et al. (2020), this test is particularly well suited to detect changes that might occur near the endpoints of the sample. A complete asymptotic theory for the test is developed under the null hypothesis of no change in the regression parameter, and consistency of the test is also established in the presence of a parameter change. Monte Carlo simulations show that our test is comparable to existing methods when the errors are homoscedastic. In contrast, existing methods developed for homoscedastic data are demonstrated to be ill‐sized and poorly performing in the presence of heteroscedasticity, while the proposed test continues to perform well in heteroscedastic environments. These results are further demonstrated in a study of the linear connection between the price of crude oil and the U.S. dollar, and in detecting changes points in asset pricing models surrounding the COVID‐19 pandemic.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it