Modeling the Effect of Inlet Geomorphic Changes on the Circulation Dynamics in a Semi-enclosed Coastal Estuary
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Eutrophication-induced hypoxia in a coastal estuarine system results in the deterioration of water quality, which is a growing issue worldwide. In early August 2016, an anoxic event caused the mortality of up to 75 percent of cultured oysters in aquaculture leases of northern Tracadie Bay, New Brunswick (TNB). Field observations revealed that, although the occurrence of summer hypoxia in north TNB is linked with anthropogenic stressors, changes in the geomorphology of one of the bay’s inlet are likely to play a significant role in escalating the eutrophic conditions. However, adequate information on the circulation dynamics of TNB estuarine system was lacking. To address this knowledge gap, a high-resolution spatially-explicit hydrodynamic model was developed for TNB to evaluate the possible physical processes involved in generation of hypoxia leading to oyster mortality. The model showed high skill (0.93) in south TNB in simulating water level elevations and slightly lower skill (0.85) in north TNB. Findings from modeling scenarios based on past, present and future inlet geomorphology suggest that it has strong consequences on intricate circulation patterns, renewal of water and transport. Further, the model is coupled with a volume advection-dispersion tracer module to track the dissemination of effluent and identify areas at risk of hypoxia. Residual flow estimates revealed poorly-circulated stagnant areas, consistent with hot spots in sediment organic matter content. Outcomes from this study will be of relevance for the management of water quality and aquaculture practices.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".