Unpacking Prevalence and Dichotomy in Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome Parameters: Observational Data–Driven Approach Backed by Sepsis Pathophysiology
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Considering morbidity, mortality, and annual treatment costs, the dramatic rise in the incidence of sepsis and septic shock among intensive care unit (ICU) admissions in US hospitals is an increasing concern. Recent changes in the sepsis definition (sepsis-3), based on the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), have motivated the international medical informatics research community to investigate score recalculation and information retrieval, and to study the intersection between sepsis-3 and the previous definition (sepsis-2) based on systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) parameters. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was three-fold. First, we aimed to unpack the most prevalent criterion for sepsis (for both sepsis-3 and sepsis-2 predictors). Second, we intended to determine the most prevalent sepsis scenario in the ICU among 4 possible scenarios for qSOFA and 11 possible scenarios for SIRS. Third, we investigated the multicollinearity or dichotomy among qSOFA and SIRS predictors. METHODS: This observational study was conducted according to the most recent update of Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III, Version 1.4), the critical care database developed by MIT. The qSOFA (sepsis-3) and SIRS (sepsis-2) parameters were analyzed for patients admitted to critical care units from 2001 to 2012 in Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (Boston, MA, USA) to determine the prevalence and underlying relation between these parameters among patients undergoing sepsis screening. We adopted a multiblind Delphi method to seek a rationale for decisions in several stages of the research design regarding handling missing data and outlier values, statistical imputations and biases, and generalizability of the study. RESULTS: Altered mental status in the Glasgow Coma Scale (59.28%, 38,854/65,545 observations) was the most prevalent sepsis-3 (qSOFA) criterion and the white blood cell count (53.12%, 17,163/32,311 observations) was the most prevalent sepsis-2 (SIRS) criterion confronted in the ICU. In addition, the two-factored sepsis criterion of high respiratory rate (≥22 breaths/minute) and altered mental status (28.19%, among four possible qSOFA scenarios besides no sepsis) was the most prevalent sepsis-3 (qSOFA) scenario, and the three-factored sepsis criterion of tachypnea, high heart rate, and high white blood cell count (12.32%, among 11 possible scenarios besides no sepsis) was the most prevalent sepsis-2 (SIRS) scenario in the ICU. Moreover, the absolute Pearson correlation coefficients were not significant, thereby nullifying the likelihood of any linear correlation among the critical parameters and assuring the lack of multicollinearity between the parameters. Although this further bolsters evidence for their dichotomy, the absence of multicollinearity cannot guarantee that two random variables are statistically independent. CONCLUSIONS: Quantifying the prevalence of the qSOFA criteria of sepsis-3 in comparison with the SIRS criteria of sepsis-2, and understanding the underlying dichotomy among these parameters provides significant inferences for sepsis treatment initiatives in the ICU and informing hospital resource allocation. These data-driven results further offer design implications for multiparameter intelligent sepsis prediction in the ICU.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.026 | 0.063 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".