Investigating large methane enhancements in the U.S. San Juan Basin
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In 2014, a satellite-based map of regional anomalies of atmospheric methane (CH4) column retrievals singled out the fossil fuel rich San Juan Basin (SJB) as the biggest CH4 regional anomaly (“hot spot”) in the United States. Over a 3-week period in April 2015, we conducted ground and airborne atmospheric measurements to investigate daily wind regimes and CH4 emissions in this region of SW Colorado and NW New Mexico. The SJB, similar to other topographical basins with local sources, experienced elevated surface air pollution under low wind and surface temperature inversion at night and early morning. Survey drives in the basin identified multiple CH4 and ethane (C2H6) sources with distinct C2H6-to-CH4 emission plume ratios for coal bed methane (CBM), natural gas, oil, and coal production operations. Air samples influenced by gas seepage from the Fruitland coal formation outcrop in La Plata County, CO, had enhanced CH4, with no C2-5 light alkane enhancements. In situ fast-response data from seven basin survey flights, all with westerly winds, were used to map and attribute the detected C2H6 and CH4 emission plumes. C2H6-to-CH4 plume enhancement correlation slopes increased from north to south, reflecting the composition of the natural gas and/or CBM extracted in different parts of the basin. Nearly 75% of the total detected CH4 and 85% of the total detected C2H6 hot spot were located in New Mexico. Emissions from CBM and natural gas operations contributed 66% to 75% of the CH4 hot spot. Emissions from oil operations in New Mexico contributed 5% to 6% of the CH4 hot spot and 8% to 14% of the C2H6 hot spot. Seepage from the Fruitland coal outcrop in Colorado contributed at most 8% of the total detected CH4, while gas venting from the San Juan underground coal mine contributed <2%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".