Does the Quality of Fiscal Institutions Matter for Fiscal Performance? A Panel Data Analysis of European Countries
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The last decade, the number of fiscal frameworks such as national fiscal rules and independent fiscal councils have increased, significantly as a consequence of fiscal indiscipline in many European Countries. In the wake of economic crisis in 2007, fiscal laxity and unsustainable public finances made the European Union to strengthen its fiscal policy in many ways in order to create an economic environment of macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth. This paper investigates the role of fiscal frameworks (fiscal rules and fiscal councils) on fiscal performance as well as the impact of other types of institutions, namely Worldwide Governance Indicators on primary balance. The empirical analysis builds on a reaction function proposed by Bohn (1998) while the estimation method builds on a fixed effect panel data estimation and a dynamic panel data estimation of Arellano-Bover and Blundell-Bond. Our main results provide that political stability, government effectiveness, fiscal rules and fiscal councils play an important role for improving fiscal performance. However, the effect of fiscal institutions on primary balance changes among different types of fiscal rules (debt rules, expenditure rules and budget balanced rules) and independent fiscal councils or fiscal councils that have access to information, respectively.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".