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Record W3111639405 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-36581/v1

Insights into the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 pandemicvia Shannon-Fisher causality plane

2020· preprint· en· W3111639405 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Leonardo H.S. Fernandes, Fernando Henrique Antunes de Araujo, Maria Angélica Ramos da Silva

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicCOVID-19 epidemiological studies
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersJohns Hopkins University
KeywordsCausality (physics)Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Dynamics (music)Plane (geometry)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakEconometricsStatistical physicsMathematicsComputer sciencePhysicsBiologyVirologyMedicineOutbreakGeometryAcousticsQuantum mechanics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract This paper performs a systematic investigation into the temporal evolution of severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic considering 15 diverse countries. Based on the foundations of Information Theory, we apply the Shannon-Fisher causality plane (SFCP), to map the dynamics behavior inherent to SARS-CoV-2 and their respective locations along the (SFCP). Our results show that this dynamics varies widely along the SFCP from the lower-right region, characterized by high entropy and low degree of reliability in relation to the information extracted from the analyzed data set to the top-right region, characterized by the less entropic and high degree of reliability in relation to the information extracted from the analyzed data set. It reveals that we have three different groups of countries in controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A country that was proactive in implementing measures such as social distancing, quarantine, orders to stay at home, testing symptomatic and asymptomatic loads and hygienic measures to limit the impacts of SARS-Cov-2 (China) and that today is clearly in the decay phase with the number of cases tending to zero and is no longer in a pandemic situation (efficient). Moderately proactive countries, ie, implemented measures only when the spread of SARS-Cov-2 was already reaching the country (France, Germany, United Kingdom, Spain, Sweden, Italy, Ireland, USA, Austria, and Canada) (moderately efficient) and the reactive countries, which took a long time to implement the measures and/or the infection came later and as a result are not managing to reduce the number of daily cases of SARS-CoV-2 (Russia, Iran, Brazil, and India) (inefficient) and are the new epicenters of the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. Besides, we applied the Bandt Pompe permutation entropy (H) and the Fisher Information (F) to obtain the rank of the most efficient countries to the fight against the SARS-CoV-2. To the best of our knowledge, no researches have been ranking the most proactive countries in the fight against the SARS-CoV-2 dissemination. We truly believe that the empirical results showed in this research draws new perspectives that can collaborate in the formulation of more efficient healthy public policies to combat SARS-CoV-2 spread.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.005
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.005
Threshold uncertainty score0.010

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.005
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0020.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.002
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.329
GPT teacher head0.433
Teacher spread0.104 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2020
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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